Over the next three years, around 392,000 new workers are expected to enter the Victorian labour market.4 This includes 168,000 workers in new jobs and 224,000 workers to replace retiring workers.5 These new workers will be in addition to the 3.7 million workers already in Victoria.6
Around 315,000 new workers are expected in metropolitan Melbourne and 77,000 in regional Victoria over the next three years. The State of the Victorian Labour Market Report and Employment Projections Dashboard, which accompany this Skills Plan, contain more detailed analysis of employment trends.
The health care and social assistance industry employs the most workers in Victoria and is expected to account for 86,500 new workers, almost a quarter of new worker growth over 2024-27.
Construction is the next highest growth industry, with 68,600 new workers. This accounts for more than one in six new workers, well above its share of current employment, and represents a notable increase in its relative importance within the job market.
Over the next 10 years, 1,421,000 new workers are expected to enter the Victorian labour market. Workers in construction and related industries will remain in high demand to deliver the government’s housing and broader infrastructure agenda. The Best Start, Best Life reforms will also support workforce growth across the health care and social assistance and education and training industries.
Some of the largest growing occupations in the next ten years include ageing and disability carers, construction managers, and carpenters and joiners.
The demand for new workers can be met through education and training (with the Victorian TAFE Network leading the way), investment in training by employers, strategic use of overseas migration and supporting more people into work.
Health care and social assistance and construction are expected to be the highest growth industries over the next three to 10 years3
Figure 1
New workers expected by industry and occupations most in demand, 2024 to 2027
Across the 19 industries, around 392,000 new workers are expected to enter the Victorian labour market over the next three years.
| Industry | Employment in 2024 | New workers in 2024-27 | Occupations in demand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Health care and social assistance | 574,500 | 86,500 | Ageing and disability carers Registered nurses Receptionists Nursing support and personal care workers Child carers/early childhood educators |
| Construction | 367,200 | 68,600 | Construction managers Carpenters and joiners Electricians Plumbers Building and plumbing labourers |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 375,300 | 42,600 | Software and applications programmers Accountants ICT managers Civil engineering professionals Solicitors |
| Education and training | 306,000 | 31,900 | Primary school teachers Secondary school teachers Education aides Private tutors and teachers University lecturers and tutors |
| Retail trade | 362,500 | 23,000 | Sales assistants (general) Retail managers Storepersons Motor vehicle and vehicle parts salespersons Checkout operators and office cashiers |
| Transport, postal and warehousing | 191,000 | 22,300 | Truck drivers Automobile drivers Storepersons Delivery drivers Forklift drivers |
| Public administration and safety | 181,900 | 17,500 | Security officers and guards Police General clerks Other information and organisation professionals Inspectors and regulatory officers |
| Manufacturing | 260,200 | 17,200 | Production managers Cabinetmakers Product assemblers Structural steel and welding trades workers Packers |
| Accommodation and food services | 231,300 | 16,300 | Sales assistants (general) Waiters Chefs Kitchenhands Cafe and restaurant managers |
| Financial and insurance services | 159,600 | 14,900 | Financial investment advisers and managers Financial brokers Bank workers Credit and loans officers Software and applications programmers |
| Administrative and support services | 112,400 | 10,100 | Commercial cleaners Domestic cleaners Human resource professionals Gardeners General clerks |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 81,000 | 7,500 | Livestock farmers Crop farmers Mixed crop and livestock farmers Crop farm workers Livestock farm workers |
| Other services | 131,000 | 7,400 | Hairdressers Motor mechanics Ministers of religion Beauty therapists General clerks |
| Rental, hiring and real estate services | 60,000 | 6,900 | General clerks Other hospitality, retail and services managers Land economists and valuers Accountants Real estate sales agents |
| Wholesale trade | 102,100 | 6,800 | Importers, exporters and wholesalers Storepersons Advertising and sales managers Sales representatives Sales assistants (general) |
| Arts and recreation services | 71,300 | 4,300 | Visual arts and crafts professionals Music professionals Livestock farm workers Other specialist managers Sports coaches, instructors and officials |
| Electricity, gas, water and waste services | 45,000 | 4,300 | Truck drivers Other information and organisation professionals Electrical engineers Recycling and rubbish collectors Other specialist managers |
| Information media and telecommunications | 57,000 | 2,900 | Film, television, radio and stage directors Journalists and other writers ICT managers Artistic directors, and media producers and presenters Advertising and sales managers |
| Mining | 9,200 | 1,000 | Truck drivers Geologists and geophysicists Metal fitters and machinists Production managers Bookkeepers |
| All industries | 3,678,600 | 392,200 | Ageing and disability carers Sales assistants (general) Registered nurses General clerks Construction managers |
Note: Occupations in demand are the top five ANZSCO four-digit occupations in each industry with the highest number of new workers expected between 2024 and 2027. New workers expected represents employment growth plus workers needed to replace retirements. Occupations that require VET qualifications are supported by government-subsidised training and fee-for-service training. For more detail, see the Employment Projections Dashboard. The number of early childhood (pre-primary school) teachers does not reflect recent changes to the rollout schedule of the Best Start, Best Life reforms announced as part of the 2024/25 Victorian Budget.
Source: DJSIR and VSA modelling, 2024.
Updated