Potential workers
Against the backdrop of a tight labour market with a strong trajectory for demand over the coming years, there is an imperative to work towards engaging individuals who face structural barriers to getting a job. The increasingly uncertain economic conditions, driven by cost of living pressures are likely to have a greater impact on individuals and communities who are already facing significant challenges. For many, participating and securing sustainable employment is one of the solutions that can help to alleviate and address some of these challenges.
The tight labour market, characterised by worker and skills shortages, highlights the need to look beyond the formal workforce to increase the pipeline of workers. Many Victorians could work but are outside of the labour market for a variety of reasons and are not seeking work. There are currently around 498,000 potential workers in Victoria. In addition to the 139,600 potential workers who are defined as unemployed,34 there are 358,400 individuals who want to work, though they may not be available to start immediately (Figure 4.3).35 From these individuals, 204,100 could start work within four weeks. The most common reasons why these individuals are not actively looking for work is due to studying commitments (22.6%), caring for children (12.2%), had no need to work (11.0%), and long-term health issues (9.7%).36
While this number of potential workers has declined from a peak of 594,400 in 2021, most of the decline has been in the number of unemployed rather than the individuals outside of the labour market who want to work.
Figure 4.3: Victorian population’s interaction with the labour force (February 2023)
New Victorian Government initiatives relating to skills
The Victorian Government has made several new commitments relating to skills which aim to boost participation in training in Victoria and support worker supply. Through changes in eligibility criteria, the Victorian Government is expanding access to government-subsidised training through Skills First and Free TAFE to support re-skilling and upskilling. Skills First subsidised courses are now available to people with higher-level qualifications, allowing Victorians to re-skill in areas of skilling priority. Additionally, individuals who have already completed a Free TAFE course may also be able to access additional Free TAFE places if they are continuing a selected training pathway.
The Victorian Government’s work to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045 will create new demand for jobs and enormous reskilling opportunities. The Victorian Government is also bringing back the State Electricity Commission (SEC), which will drive down cheaper power bills, and create government-owned renewable energy.
Projections from the Clean Economy Workforce Development Strategy show that around 10,000 additional jobs per year will be required for renewable energy transition from now until 2030. Growth of new sectors and development of emerging technologies will deliver new jobs and up-skilling of almost 500,000 workers.37
These projections have a longer time period than the forecasts in this report, which are for new workers expected between 2023 and 2026. Further, these projections are dispersed across multiple industries, including electricity, gas, water and waste services, construction (for new renewable energy generation for example) and manufacturing (for manufacturing electric vehicles for example).
As stated in Victoria’s Housing Statement, the Victorian Government has set a target to build 800,000 homes in Victoria over the next decade, supporting 16,000 jobs.38 Developing the workforce is key to supporting the housing target and Victoria’s vocational and education training system plays a critical role in preparing the workers for the range of jobs that will be in demand, such as through Free TAFE.
Notes
34 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Potential workers, February 2023.
35 This includes individuals who wanted to work but did not fall into the category of unemployed as they were either not actively looking or were not available to work in the last week. It also includes those who had a job to go to but were not available to work within one to four weeks.
36 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Potential workers, February 2023.
37 Victorian Government (2023) Clean Economy Workforce Development Strategy 2023 to 2033(opens in a new window)
38 Victorian Government (2023) Victoria’s Housing Statement – the decade ahead 2024 to 2034(opens in a new window), 20 September.
Updated