Labour market needs of regional Victoria (2023 to 2026)
Regional Victoria will be home to many more workers
Regional Victoria will account for 21.4% of new workers expected (or 75,000) by 2026. Barwon, Gippsland, Loddon Campaspe, and Central Highlands regions will account for around two-thirds of these new workers (Figure 2.7).
Around 61% of new workers expected (or 45,700) in regional Victoria will require higher-order skills.
Figure 2.7: New workers expected across regional Victoria (2023 to 2026)
The number of new workers expected in the short-term for regional Victoria is lower than what was expected in the Victorian Skills Plan for 2022 into 2023(opens in a new window). The relatively weaker trajectory for new workers expected in regional Victoria is due to factors related to labour supply. The surge in internal migration to regional Victoria in recent years increased demand for services and in turn, the demand for workers. However, this is likely a temporary shock as regional areas are unlikely to sustain the same rate of growth in the future. Lack of available housing in regional Victoria accompanied by an expected slowdown in housing construction will contribute to softening of new workers expected. Further, the ageing population, more concentrated in regional Victoria, is expected to reduce labour supply more than in metropolitan Melbourne. Finally, there is a lower proportion of people of working age in regional Victoria, which is also expected to decline faster than for metropolitan Melbourne.15
Across industries in regional Victoria, health care and social assistance (22,600 new workers), accommodation and food services (8,900), and education and training (7,100) are expecting the highest number of new workers by 2026 (Figure 2.8).
Figure 2.8: New workers expected in regional Victoria by industry (2023 to 2026)
Similar trends are observed across each of the nine regions, with health care and social assistance accounting for the highest proportion of new workers expected by 2026. There are some differences though. For example, there is a relatively higher proportion of new workers expected:
- in agriculture, forestry and fishing for Great South Coast, Wimmera Southern Mallee and Mallee
- in education and training for Barwon and Central Highlands
- in accommodation and food services for Ovens Murray
- in construction for Barwon, Central Highlands, and Goulburn.
These trends are primarily driven by a higher share of current employment for these industries in the respective regions.
Similar to the metropolitan Melbourne, professionals will drive the new workers expected over the next three years across all regions in regional Victoria, except for the Great South Coast, where managers are expected to be in more demand.
At a more detailed occupational level, the trends in regional Victoria are similar to the metropolitan sub-regions, with ageing and disability carers, registered nurses and general clerks being in the top five occupations in demand across all regional areas. Livestock farmers are in the top five occupations in demand for five of the nine regions (Gippsland, Great South Coast, Loddon Campaspe, Mallee and Wimmera Southern Mallee).
Notes
15 Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, state and territory population (June 2022); Department of Transport and Planning, Victoria in Future, 2019.
Updated