Barwon South West Region
Regional overview
In the Barwon South West (BSW) Region a wet start to summer prompted the region to plan for an early commencement to the autumn planned burning program. However, the dry tail-end to summer conditions led to a later than anticipated start to burning. Although the region was able to undertake some grass burns in mid-February, the remainder of the program was halted until late March, when more favourable conditions were present.
Some limited burning in the wetter parts of the Otway District was able to be undertaken in March whilst conditions remained dry. These dry conditions meant burns were more resource intensive with slower ignitions limiting the number and distribution of treatments.
Easter rain saw conditions change from too dry to too wet to burn across much of the region. The resulting weather cycles did not contain drying conditions or stable ignition weather, with the western part of the region experiencing constant drizzle for numerous weeks. Subsequently, the burn program shifted focus to the east of the region. Burning conditions improved in mid-April to allow the majority of burns to be completed.
Larger burns were the focus of the winter burning program from May, with budget constraints limiting winter operations during June. A number of landscape mosaic burns were conducted across the district with a continued focus on large-scale, patchy burning in the landscape.
Fuel management delivery
Weather conditions limited the areas across the region that were available to burn. A dry end to summer caused much of the landscape to be too dry to burn, followed by easter rain events that made the landscape too wet. Resource constraints affected burn delivery particularly in the Far South West (FSW) District.
During 2023–24, the BSW Region’s fuel management program focussed on planned burning, treating 9,035 hectares. Of the total hectares treated with planned burning, 7,026 hectares (78%) were delivered primarily for risk reduction and 2,009 hectares (22%) for ecological objectives FFMVic led the delivery of 10 cross-tenure burns with the CFA (Table 14).
The total cost of the BSW Region fuel management program in 2023–24 was $16.8 million (Table 21).
Table 25 summarises fuel management activities in the Barwon South West Region.
Table 25: Fuel management delivery, Barwon South West region, 2023–24.
| Fuel management | Total hectares | Number of treatments |
|---|---|---|
Area treated by planned burning Ecological burns Risk reduction burns Windrow / heap burns | 9,035 ha 2,009 ha (22%) 7,026 ha (78%) 0 ha (0%) | 48 14 34 0 |
Area treated by non-burn fuel treatments Mechanical mulching Mechanical slashing or mowing Other methods | 569 ha 25 ha 519 ha 25 ha | 80 9 69 2 |
| Total area treated | 9,604 ha | 128 |
Fuel-driven bushfire risk
Fuel-driven bushfire risk in BSW Region on 30 June 2024 was 57%, achieving the target to maintain risk at or below 60% of maximum levels.
Maintaining regional residual risk below target is determined largely by the outcomes in the Otway District. Residual risk should remain below target in the medium-term if seasonal conditions are favourable and the district is resourced to deliver the program.
The Otway District has an ongoing and complex challenge to stay at or below its fuel-driven bushfire risk target of 60% This year it was achieved through a strong focus on priority burns, development of techniques for burning to fuel moisture differentials year-round, high levels of preparedness and intent to burn, and the development and acquisition of innovative equipment.
Key to reducing risk in the Otway District is the establishment of an extensive network of Strategic Fuel Breaks which assist in protecting townships and key access and egress routes along the coast.
The FSW District prioritises high risk reducing burns and complementing this with a program of higher frequency burning along 'spines' or ridges through large continuous forested areas to break up and prevent the spread of large fires.
The Barwon South West Region has developed the ability to utilise and deploy up to 10 taskforces at a time, strong incident management team (IMT) capability, and have excellent support from both the FSW and Otway districts, combined with other districts from across Victoria. This is supported by relationships with key stakeholders including Traditional Owners and the broader community.
Table 26 provides an overview of the Barwon South West Region’s fuel-driven bushfire risk over the past five years.
Table 26: Fuel-driven bushfire risk, Barwon South West region and districts, 2019-20 to 2023-24.
| Fuel-driven bushfire risk | 2019-20* | 2020-21* | 2021–22* | 2022–23* | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Barwon South West Region (Target 60%) | 67% | 62% | 58% | 60% | 57% |
Far South West District (Target 55%) | 53% | 51% | 49% | 50% | 49% |
Otway District (Target 60%) | 68% | 63% | 59% | 61% | 58% |
*2023-24 risk data and improvements used to update previous years
Figure 2 indicates the BSW Region’s risk profile for 1980 to 2024 and projected changes in fuel-driven bushfire risk until 2027. It indicates fuel-driven bushfire risk in the BSW Region:
- is projected to increase to 70% by 2027 in the absence of any fuel management activity or bushfires, and
- implementing the entire JFMP would keep risk levels below the long-term regional planning target.
Figure 2: Barwon South West’s fuel-driven bushfire risk from 1980 – 2024. Data aligns with financial year.
Ecosystem resilience
In the Barwon South West Region, the proportion of public land vegetation within the Tolerable Fire Interval (TFI) has remained stable at 41% over the last three years (Table 27). Vegetation below the minimum TFI remained consistent at 20% in 2023-24. The area above the maximum TFI increased marginally from 11% to 12%. The percentage of vegetation with no fire history stayed consistent at 27%.
Table 27: Tolerable Fire Interval – Barwon South West region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Tolerable Fire Interval | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below minimum TFI | % | 21% | 20% | 20% | - |
| Within TFI | % | 41% | 41% | 41% | - |
| Above maximum TFI | % | 11% | 11% | 12% | |
| No fire history | % | 27% | 27% | 27% | ¯ |
| Total | % | 100% | 100%* | 100% |
|
*The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
The proportion of vegetation in the Barwon South West (BSW) region at the mature and old growth stages remained stable at 60% (Table 28). Juvenile growth stage has remained unchanged, while adolescent growth stage has shown a slight decline. The percentage of vegetation with no fire history also remained consistent across the three years at 26%.
Table 28: Growth Stage Structure – Barwon South West region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Growth Stage Structure | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juvenile growth stage | % | 8% | 6% | 6% | - |
| Adolescent growth stage | % | 7% | 8% | 7% | ¯ |
| Mature growth stage | % | 42% | 43% | 44% | |
| Old growth stage | % | 16% | 17% | 16% | ¯ |
| No fire history | % | 26% | 26% | 26% | - |
| Total | % | 100% | 100% | 100%* |
|
* The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
Gippsland Region
Regional overview
The 2023-24 season saw the Gippsland Region deliver the most successful planned burn delivery season since 2018-19. Dry seasonal conditions in early spring saw opportunities to deliver small sections of several larger burns against private property boundaries, which assisted in improving burn security when conducting the larger operations in autumn. This unseasonal dryness compared to previous La Nina years saw burns delivered every month from July to December, with peaks in September and November.
Bushfires during dry conditions in September and October in the Snowy and Macalister Districts restricted resources available for planned burning. Resources were also deployed to respond to a damaging storm event near Mirboo North in the Latrobe District in late February and early March which further restricted resources available for planned burning. Mechanical debris removal is underway in the areas impacted by the storm. These actions are expected to yield immediate reductions in bushfire risk for nearby communities through the reduction of coarse woody debris from roadsides to enable timely, safe and effective access for suppression.
Autumn delivery began in late February and continued through to late May. March was the peak delivery season across the region with 21 separate operations conducted before a major rain event halted delivery in the Latrobe and Macalister districts. Both Tambo and Snowy Districts were able to continue delivery through April, with 9 and 4 operations respectively. A late season drying pattern through late April and early May meant that additional burns units were suitable, allowing a second peak in regional delivery in May, with a further 15 operations delivered.
In the Gippsland Region, 73 burns were delivered in a year where delivery opportunities were short and coincided with optimum conditions across the state, particularly a 10-day period in late March/early April. As critical resources were in high demand across the state, Gippsland region, following program prioritisation guidelines, was able to deliver 21 priority burns.
All four districts were able to deliver more than 40% of their planned burns identified in Year 1 of the JFMP. With the Tambo District having an extremely successful year delivering 73% of Year 1 burns. Of the 73 burns delivered, 6 were ecological burns, 18 were windrow/heap burns, with the remainder being bushfire risk reduction burns.
In addition to the planned burn program, Gippsland delivered 346 individual non-burn fuel treatments (NBFT) totalling 4,425 hectares. The NBFTs were a combination of mulching, slashing, spraying and strategic fuel break maintenance.
Fuel management delivery
During 2023–24, the Gippsland Region’s fuel management program treated a total of 43,858 hectares across a number of different treatment types. Of the total hectares treated with planned burning, 39,268 hectares (>99%) were risk reduction burns and 160 hectares (<1%) were ecological burns. Non burn treatments accounted for 4,425 hectares, with mechanical slashing and mowing the most common treatment method.
Table 29 summarises fuel management activities in the Gippsland Region.
Table 29: Fuel management delivery, Gippsland region, 2023–24.
| Fuel Management | Total hectares | Number of treatments |
|---|---|---|
Area treated by planned burning Ecological burns Risk reduction burns Windrow / heap burns | 39,433 ha 160 ha (<1%) 39,268 ha (>99%) 6 ha | 73 6 49 18 |
Area treated by non-burn fuel treatments Mechanical mulching Mechanical slashing or mowing Other methods | 4,425 ha 15 ha 4,252 ha 159 ha | 346 8 334 4 |
| Total area treated | 43,858 ha | 419 |
Note: Discrepancies in reported total and the total of individual line items are artefacts of rounding using the Rounding Guidelines.
Fuel-driven bushfire risk
Fuel-driven bushfire risk in Gippsland Region on 30 June 2024 was 49%, achieving the target to maintain risk at or below 71% of maximum levels.
Districts also have long-term planning targets for the management of fuel-driven bushfire risk which assist FFMVic in meeting the statewide target and long-term regional planning targets.
While three out of four districts in the region remain below their long-term planning target, Latrobe District continues to face elevated fuel-driven bushfire risk, currently standing at 86%, which is above the long-term planning target of 80%.
Only a small proportion of Latrobe District’s fuel-driven bushfire risk can be reduced through fuel management delivered by FFMVic within the District. A large proportion of the fuel-driven bushfire risk originates from private land, plantations or bushfire fuels in neighbouring FFMVic districts including Yarra and Murrindindi which are dominated by forest types (e.g. Mountain Ash forest) that are challenging to treat with planned burning.
Short burning windows and unfavourable weather conditions have limited the extent and effectiveness of the planned burning program in the Latrobe District and neighbouring districts over recent years.
To complement the planned burning that was able to be delivered, Latrobe District completed non-burn fuel treatments and the removal of storm debris in Mirboo North. The risk reduction benefits of these fuel management activities are not reflected in performance against the risk target due to limitations in existing modelling techniques.
Latrobe District is working collaboratively with neighbouring districts and landholders to deliver targeted risk reduction burns to reduce the residual risk within the district wherever possible. There are 12 cross-tenure burns on the JFMP within the Latrobe District. An example of this is Labertouche - Robertson Creek burn, a cross boundary burn between Yarra and Latrobe Districts designed to reduce the risk of fire approaching from the north or west impacting community within the Labertouche area.
These targeted strategies are aligned with long-term goals and are expected to bring the district closer to its planning target, contributing to broader risk reduction efforts across the region.
Fuel-driven bushfire risk in Gippsland continues to trend upward from a relatively low level following extensive bushfires in 2019-20. Gippsland’s JFMP is designed to reduce the rate of this increase by over half through targeting areas that will most effectively reduce risk and increasing fuel management activities in Snowy and Tambo districts.
Table 30 provides an overview of the Gippsland Region’s fuel-driven bushfire risk, 2021-24.
Table 30: Fuel-driven bushfire risk, Gippsland region and districts, 2019-20 to 2023-24.
| Fuel-driven bushfire risk | 2019-20* | 2020-21* | 2021–22* | 2022–23* | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gippsland Region (Target 71%) | 41% | 43% | 43% | 46% | 49% |
Latrobe District (Target 80%) | 82% | 85% | 82% | 84% | 86% |
Macalister District (Target 65%) | 47% | 50% | 57% | 58% | 61% |
Snowy District (Target 65%) | 3% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 14% |
Tambo District (Target 65%) | 25% | 25% | 28% | 33% | 35% |
*2023-24 risk data and improvements used to update previous years
Figure 3 indicates the Gippsland Region’s risk profile for 1980 to 2024 and projected changes in fuel-driven bushfire risk until 2027. It indicates fuel-driven bushfire risk in the Gippsland region:
- is projected to increase to 71% by 2027 in the absence of any fuel management activity or bushfires, and
- implementing the entire JFMP would keep risk levels below the Gippsland region long-term regional planning target.
Figure 3: Gippsland’s fuel-driven bushfire risk from 1980 – 2024. Data aligns with financial year.
Ecosystem resilience
In 2023-24, the area of public land vegetation in Gippsland Region within its TFI remained stable at 21% (Table 31). Approximately 70% of vegetation on public land in the Region remains below its minimum TFI due to the devasting impacts of the 2010-20 Black Summer bushfires which burnt over 1.5 million hectares of eastern Victoria.
Table 31: Tolerable Fire Interval – Gippsland region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Tolerable Fire Interval | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below minimum TFI | % | 76% | 70% | 70% | - |
| Within TFI | % | 15% | 21% | 21% | - |
| Above maximum TFI | % | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| No fire history | % | 7% | 7% | 7% | - |
| Total | % | 100%* | 100%* | 100%* |
|
* The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
The proportion of vegetation on public land in the Gippsland region at the mature and old growth stages remained stable at 25% from 2021–22 to 2023–24 (Table 32). The juvenile growth stage declined from 47% in 2021–22 to 26% in 2023–24. The adolescent growth stage remained consistent at 41% in both 2022–23 and 2023–24. Mature growth remained stable at 24% during the same period, while old growth stayed at 1%. The percentage of vegetation with no fire history was unchanged at 7% across all three years.
Table 32: Growth Stage Structure – Gippsland region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Growth Stage Structure | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juvenile growth stage | % | 47% | 27% | 26% | ¯ |
| Adolescent growth stage | % | 21% | 41% | 41% | - |
| Mature growth stage | % | 23% | 24% | 24% | - |
| Old growth stage | % | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| No fire history | % | 7% | 7% | 7% | - |
| Total | % | 100%* | 100% | 100%* |
|
*Note: The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
Grampians Region
Regional Overview
Delivery of the 2023-24 Grampians Region fuel management program was influenced by weather conditions and the significant bushfires that impacted communities across the region in autumn 2024. Significant rainfall in spring and early summer limited the opportunities for planned burning. This was followed by two months of dry conditions which led to bushfires impacting communities and large areas of public land.
Major bushfires in February 2024 burnt around 29,000 hectares in the Grampians (Gariwerd) National Park, Mt Cole State Forest, Mt Lonarch State Forest, Mt Buangor State Park and Ross Creek State Forest. The extended period of suitable planned burning weather in autumn 2024 supported the Wimmera District to complete a good-sized planned burn program, despite the bushfires.
Resources across the region were involved in the fire suppression and subsequent rehabilitation works, which impacted on preparation and delivery of the entire fuel management program in the Midlands District.
Fuel management delivery
During 2023–24, the Grampians Region’s fuel management program treated a total of 10,593 hectares across a number of different treatment types. Of the total hectares treated with planned burning, 8,678 hectares (92%) were risk reduction burns, and 779 hectares (8%) were ecological burns. Non-burn fuel treatments accounted for 1,135 hectares.
FFMVic led the delivery of one cross-tenure burns with the CFA in the Grampians region (Table 14). Total investment in the Grampians region fuel management program was $11.7 million in 2023-24 (Table 21).
Table 33 summarises the Grampians region’s fuel management activities in 2023–24.
Table 33: Fuel management delivery, Grampians region, 2023–24.
| Fuel management | Total hectares | Number of treatments |
|---|---|---|
Area treated by planned burning Ecological burns Risk reduction burns Windrow / heap burns | 9,458 ha 779 ha (8%) 8,678 ha (92%) 0 ha | 27 3 22 2 |
Area treated by non-burn fuel treatments Mechanical mulching Mechanical slashing or mowing Other methods | 1,135 ha 182 ha 922 ha 32 ha | 113 13 99 1 |
| Total area treated | 10,593 ha | 140 |
Note: Discrepancies in reported total and the total of individual line items are artefacts of rounding using the Rounding Guidelines.
Fuel-driven bushfire risk
Fuel-driven bushfire risk in Grampians Region on 30 June 2024 was 74%, exceeding the regions long-term planning target to maintain fuel-driven bushfire risk at or below 70% of maximum levels.
Fuel-driven bushfire risk decreased slightly in 2023-24 due to bushfires and the Wimmera District’s planned burning program. Prior to 2023-24, fuel-driven bushfire risk in the region had been increasing over the past 10 years, due to limited planned burning activity, and for the past five years has not met the risk target.
Bushfire risk in Midlands District has been increasing due to the limited opportunities to carry out planned burning in the Wombat State Forest area due to weather patterns (consisting of long wet periods and a quick transition to dry weather) and the impacts of the 2021 windstorms. The 2021 storm debris has created access challenges for planned burning activities. A program to remove storm debris has continued in 2023-24 with the aim to improve access and reduce bushfire risk.
Large burns aimed at creating a mosaic of planned burning across the landscape are proposed as an alternative in the Wombat State Forest, to overcome restrictions posed by weather and to mitigate potential impacts on threatened species. It may take several years of treatment to reduce the bushfire risk.
Risk will continue to increase if current limitations on planned burning in the area persist. The Wombat State Forest area carries the largest proportion of the Region’s bushfire risk due to increasing residential areas in and around the forest.
Table 34 indicates the current level of fuel-driven bushfire risk in the region and its districts and how this has changed over the past 3 years.
Table 34: Fuel-driven bushfire risk, Grampians Region and districts, 2019-20 to 2023-24.
| Fuel-driven bushfire risk | 2019–20* | 2020–21* | 2021–22* | 2022–23* | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grampians Region (Target 70%) | 73% | 75% | 75% | 76% | 74% |
Midlands District (Target 70%) | 75% | 78% | 77% | 79% | 77% |
Wimmera District (Target 70%) | 41% | 43% | 48% | 40% | 38% |
*2023-24 risk data and improvements used to update previous years
Figure 4 indicates the Grampians Region’s risk profile for 1980 to 2024 and projected changes in fuel-driven risk until 2027. It indicates fuel-driven bushfire risk in the Grampians region:
- is projected to increase to 81% by 2027 in the absence of any fuel management activity or bushfires, and
- implementing the entire JFMP would get risk levels below the long-term regional planning target.
Figure 4: Grampian’s fuel-driven bushfire risk from 1980 – 2024. Data aligns with financial year.
Ecosystem resilience
Ecosystem resilience measures within the Grampians region are significantly influenced by the bushfire history of the Grampians National Park. The proportion of vegetation within the Grampians region that is within the TFI has been increasing, while vegetation below minimum TFI continues to decline. In 2023–24, the area of public land vegetation within its TFI increased by 1% to 31% (Table 35). Vegetation below minimum TFI decreased from 39% in 2021–22 to 37% in 2023–24, while vegetation above maximum TFI remained stable at 3% across 2022–23 and 2023–24. Approximately 37% of vegetation on public land in the region remains below its minimum TFI.
Table 35: Tolerable Fire Interval – Grampians region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Tolerable Fire Interval | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below minimum TFI | % | 39% | 38% | 37% | ¯ |
| Within TFI | % | 29% | 30% | 31% | |
| Above maximum TFI | % | 2% | 3% | 3% | - |
| No fire history | % | 30% | 30% | 29% | ¯ |
| Total | % | 100% | 100%* | 100% |
|
* The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
The proportion of vegetation on public land in the Grampians region in the mature and old growth stages increased to 49% in 2023–24 (Table 36). The juvenile growth stage showed a gradual increase, rising from 6% in 2021–22 to 7% in 2023–24. Conversely, the adolescent growth stage decreased from 20% in 2021–22 to 16% in 2023–24. The mature growth stage increased from 38% in 2021–22 to 42% in 2023–24, while the old growth stage remained relatively stable at 7%. The percentage of vegetation with no fire history remained consistent at 29% for both 2022–23 and 2023–24.
Table 36: Growth Stage Structure – Grampians region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Growth Stage Structure | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juvenile growth stage | % | 6% | 6% | 7% | |
| Adolescent growth stage | % | 20% | 19% | 16% | ¯ |
| Mature growth stage | % | 38% | 40% | 42% | |
| Old growth stage | % | 6% | 6% | 7% | |
| No fire history | % | 30% | 29% | 29% | - |
| Total | % | 100% | 100% | 100%* |
|
* The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
Hume Region
Regional overview
2023-24 was characterised by a mild and dry El-Nino event in the spring of 2023 following on from three consecutive wet La Nina events. The dry lead into summer was short lived with two significant rainfall events occurring, the first around Christmas 2023 and the second early in 2024. Then, as in the previous year, February was a relatively dry month, particularly in the western half of the region. This resulted in a gradual drying of fuels which allowed the program to get underway in the Murrindindi District in mid-February.
The return to more average conditions from March into May then provided the opportunity to deliver planned burns at scale across the region. Delivery of the program across the region was finally wrapped up in June with the last of the windrow/heap burns being completed.
Fuel management delivery
During 2023–24, the Hume Region’s fuel management program treated a total of 60,116 hectares. Of the total hectares treated with planned burning (55,657 hectares), 55,270 hectares (99%) were risk reduction burns, and 386 hectares (1%) were ecological burns. The region delivered four Landscape Mosaic Burns covering a total of 5,546 hectares. Non-burn fuel treatments were delivered across 4,459 hectares.
FFMVic led the delivery of two cross-tenure burns with the CFA in the Hume region (Table 14). Total investment in the Hume fuel management program in 2023-24 was $25.9 million (Table 21).
Table 37 summarises the region’s fuel management activities in 2023–24.
Table 37: Fuel management delivery, Hume region, 2023–24.
| Fuel management | Total hectares | Total Number of treatments |
|---|---|---|
Area treated by planned burning Ecological burns Risk reduction burns Windrow / heap burns | 55,657 ha 386 ha (1%) 55,270 ha (99%) 2 ha | 91 4 80 7 |
Area treated by non-burn fuel treatments Mechanical mulching Mechanical slashing or mowing Other methods | 4,459 ha 992 ha 890 ha 2,577 ha | 174 22 122 30 |
| Total area treated | 60,116 ha | 265 |
Note: Discrepancies in reported total and the total of individual line items are artefacts of rounding using the Rounding Guidelines.
Fuel-driven bushfire risk
Hume Region’s fuel-driven bushfire risk on 30 June 2024 was 69%, achieving the Region’s target to maintain risk at or below 69% of maximum levels.
Fuel-driven bushfire risk was maintained within target levels in three of the region’s four districts. Burn delivery in the Goulburn and Murrindindi Districts has contributed to the maintenance of fuel-driven bushfire risk below their respective targets, while Upper Murray remains well below their fuel driven bushfire risk target due to the impact of the Black Summer bushfires in 2019-20. This indicates that the planning and implementation of burns is in line with the intent of Hume’s Bushfire Management Strategy (BMS). The BMS and updated Fuel Management Zones (FMZ) focuses on forest fuel reduction on public land in areas near high-risk communities as focus areas for engagement and collaboration activities. Treatment of forest fuels in these areas complements risk reduction activities on public land.
The Ovens District’s large autumn delivery program successfully halted rising risk levels and maintained fuel-driven bushfire risk at 66%, the same level as 2023, though the district remains above its target to maintain fuel-driven bushfire risk at or below 55% of maximum levels. The fuel management work delivered in Ovens District in 2023-24 provides good leverage for further reducing the risk levels in the upcoming JFMP planning and delivery cycle.
The significant fire season of 2019-20, impacting the Upper Murray and Ovens districts, continues to contribute to reduced fuel-driven bushfire risk levels in the short term in the Upper Murray district, beyond planned burning activity alone. In the Ovens district, the fuel-driven bushfire risk has not been significantly reduced by the effects of bushfire in the same way, due to the remoteness of those fires. In Ovens district, unfavourable conditions for planned burning during 2022 and 2023 contributed to the rise in the district’s fuel-driven bushfire risk to 11% above target levels.
The region and districts will give priority to the fuel management program except when responding to emergencies. This includes prioritising the allocation of resources for delivery in the districts that are above or approaching their fuel-driven bushfire risk targets.
Table 38 indicates the current level of fuel-driven bushfire risk in the region and how it has changed over the past 3 years.
Table 38: Fuel-driven bushfire risk, Hume Region and Districts, 2019-20 to 2023–24.
| Fuel-driven bushfire risk | 2019–20* | 2020-21* | 2021–22* | 2022–23* | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hume Region (Target 69%) | 67% | 67% | 66% | 71% | 69% |
Goulburn District (Target 75%) | 74% | 76% | 68% | 72% | 68% |
Murrindindi District (Target 80%) | 80% | 81% | 76% | 80% | 75% |
Ovens District (Target 55%) | 55% | 53% | 59% | 66% | 66% |
| Upper Murray District (Target 60%) | 42% | 40% | 44% | 42% | 50% |
*2023-24 risk data and improvements used to update previous years
Figure 5 indicates the Hume region’s risk profile for 1980 to 2024 and projected changes in fuel-driven bushfire risk until 2027. It indicates fuel-driven bushfire risk in the Hume region:
- is projected to increase to 81% by 2027 in the absence of any fuel management activity or bushfires, and
- implementing the entire JFMP would keep fuel-driven bushfire risk levels below the long-term regional planning target.
Figure 5: Hume’s fuel-driven bushfire risk from 1980 – 2024. Data aligns with financial year.
Ecosystem resilience
In 2023–24, the area of public land vegetation in the Hume region within its TFI remained stable at 32% (Table 39). Approximately 56% of vegetation on public land in the region remains below its minimum TFI, primarily due to the severe impacts of the 2019–20 Black Summer bushfires, which burned over 1.5 million hectares of eastern Victoria. Vegetation below minimum TFI decreased significantly from 67% in 2021–22 to 56% in both 2022–23 and 2023–24. Vegetation above. maximum TFI remained stable at 1% throughout the period, while the percentage of vegetation with no fire history held steady at 11% across all three years.
Table 39: Tolerable Fire Interval – Hume region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Tolerable Fire Interval | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below minimum TFI | % | 67% | 56% | 56% | - |
| Within TFI | % | 20% | 32% | 32% | - |
| Above maximum TFI | % | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| No fire history | % | 11% | 11% | 11% | - |
| Total | % | 100%* | 100% | 100% |
|
*The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
The proportion of vegetation on public land in the Hume region in the mature and old growth stages remained stable at 40% from 2022-23 (Table 40). The juvenile growth stage decreased from 23% in 2021–22 to 11% in 2023–24. The adolescent growth stage increased from 27% in 2021–22 to 38% over the same period. Vegetation with no fire history was unchanged at 11% for all years presented.
Table 40: Growth Stage Structure – Hume region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Growth Stage Structure | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juvenile growth stage | % | 23% | 16% | 11% | ¯ |
| Adolescent growth stage | % | 27% | 33% | 38% | |
| Mature growth stage | % | 36% | 38% | 38% | - |
| Old growth stage | % | 2% | 2% | 2% | - |
| No fire history | % | 11% | 11% | 11% | - |
| Total | % | 100%* | 100% | 100% |
|
*The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
Loddon Mallee Region
Regional overview
The Loddon Mallee Region successfully delivered a comprehensive planned burning program across the Murray Goldfields and Mallee districts during autumn.
Despite challenging weather conditions, the Mallee District completed over 120 km of edge work using a variety of ignition techniques, including hand ignition, aerial drip torches, and the innovative Too Easy Firestick (vehicle-mounted drip torch). Much of this work was conducted directly adjacent to private property, reducing the risk to life, property, and economic production by mitigating the potential for exit fires during future harvests. Additionally, the Mallee District’s resources supported the burn program in the Murray Goldfields District and have been involved in re-accrediting mixing crews and aerial drip torch operators statewide.
The Murray Goldfields District prioritised burns in areas that would significantly reduce the risk of bushfires impacting local communities. Over 4,000 hectares were treated during the autumn burn season. In the Pyrenees area, favourable weather conditions allowed for the completion of five burns, timed to avoid the grape-growing season. The burn program focused on edge ignitions and some internal work using hand ignition and aerial drip torches. Resources from the Gippsland and Port Phillip regions were instrumental in the successful delivery of this large-scale program.
High-priority burns were conducted in the southern Castlemaine area to significantly reduce the risk to local communities in one of the region's most vulnerable areas in the Loddon Mallee region.
To enable the delivery of fuel management treatments in elevated risk districts, Mallee district resources were reallocated to other districts across the state. This supported the delivery of statewide priorities but impacted the district’s ability to deliver a large-scale burn program during the optimal post-summer/early autumn window.
Fuel management delivery
During 2023–24, the Loddon Mallee Region’s fuel management program treated a total of 11,115 hectares. Risk reduction burns attributed to 7,735 hectares of the total area treated and no ecological burns were conducted. Non-burn fuel treatments were delivered across 3,380 hectares.
Total investment in the Loddon Mallee fuel management program was $15.5 million in 2023-24 (Table 21). Table 44 summarises the regions fuel management delivery in 2023–24. Table 41 summarises the regions fuel management delivery in 2023–24.
Table 41: Fuel management delivery, Loddon Mallee region, 2023–24.
| Fuel management | Total hectares | Total number of treatments |
|---|---|---|
Area treated by planned burning Ecological burns Risk reduction burns Windrow / heap burns | 7,735 ha 0 ha 7,734 ha 1 ha | 50 0 45 5 |
Area treated by non-burn fuel treatments Mechanical mulching Mechanical slashing or mowing Other methods | 3,380 ha 701 ha 2,049 ha 630 ha | 769 147 586 36 |
| Total area treated | 11,115 ha | 819 |
Note: Discrepancies in reported total and the total of individual line items are artefacts of rounding using the Rounding Guidelines.
Fuel-driven bushfire risk
Fuel-driven bushfire risk in Loddon Mallee Region on 30 June 2024 was 74%, achieving the region’s target to maintain fuel-driven bushfire risk at or below 75% of maximum levels.
Both Mallee and Murray Goldfields districts are within their respective targets. Fuel treatment implementation in the Mallee district reduced risk from 82% to 79%. Fuel treatment in Murray Goldfields district prevented risk from increasing, maintaining risk at 74%.
Table 42 indicates the current level of fuel-driven bushfire risk in the region and how it has changed over the past five years.
Table 42: Fuel driven bushfire risk, Loddon Mallee Region and Districts, 2021–24.
| Fuel-driven bushfire risk | 2019-20* | 2020-21* | 2021–22* | 2022–23* | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loddon Mallee Region (Target 75%) | 72% | 72% | 68% | 74% | 74% |
Mallee District (Target 90%) | 79% | 79% | 82% | 82% | 79% |
Murray Goldfields District (Target 75%) | 72% | 72% | 68% | 74% | 74% |
*2023-24 risk data and improvements used to update previous years
Figure 6 indicates the Loddon Mallee region’s risk profile for 1980 to 2024 and projected changes in fuel-driven bushfire risk until 2027. It indicates fuel-driven bushfire risk in the Loddon Mallee region:
- is projected to increase to 85% by 2027 in the absence of any fuel management activity or bushfires, and
- implementing the entire JFMP would keep risk levels below the long-term regional planning target.
Figure 6: Loddon Mallee’s fuel-driven bushfire risk from 1980 – 2024. Data aligns with financial year.
Ecosystem resilience
For the first time in over two decades, the percentage of native vegetation in the minimum TFI status has fallen below 25% TFI (min), at 19%. This decline is primarily attributed to two factors: the aging of vegetation in older bushfire scars that no longer meet the minimum TFI status and the successful efforts of bushfire management and suppression teams in preventing large-scale bushfires. 35% of vegetation in the Loddon Mallee Region is now within TFI (Table 43).
Table 43: Tolerable Fire Interval – Loddon Mallee region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Tolerable Fire Interval | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below minimum TFI | % | 27% | 25% | 19% | ¯ |
| Within TFI | % | 29% | 30% | 35% | |
| Above maximum TFI | % | 1% | 2% | 4% | |
| No fire history | % | 43% | 43% | 43% | - |
| Total | % | 100% | 100% | 100%* |
|
*The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
The proportion of vegetation on public land in the Loddon Mallee region in the mature and old growth stages increased by 1% to 43% in 2023–24 (). The juvenile growth stage decreased from 3% in 2021–22 to 2% in 2023–24. The adolescent growth stage also showed a decline, dropping from 8% in 2021–22 to 7% in 2023–24. The mature growth stage increased from 40% in 2021–22 to 43% in 2023–24, while the old growth stage remained stable at 5% across all three years. Vegetation with no fire history was consistent at 43% throughout the period.
Table 44: Growth Stage Structure – Loddon Mallee region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Growth Stage Structure | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juvenile growth stage | % | 3% | 3% | 2% | ¯ |
| Adolescent growth stage | % | 8% | 8% | 7% | ¯ |
| Mature growth stage | % | 40% | 42% | 43% | |
| Old growth stage | % | 5% | 5% | 5% | - |
| No fire history | % | 43% | 43% | 43% | - |
| Total | % | 100%* | 100%* | 100% |
|
*The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
Port Phillip Region
Regional overview
A two-week burning window before easter resulted in one of the busiest planned burning periods the Port Phillip Region has experienced for several years. This window allowed the delivery of priority ecological burns in the critically endangered Western Grasslands, followed by priority, complex risk reducing burns in the Dandenongs and Yarra/Warburton Valleys. A rain event over easter followed by continuous wet conditions hampered further burning opportunities in forested areas. In late April/early May, focus shifted to supporting Traditional Owner led burns on Wurundjeri and Bunurong country in grassier vegetation types on the public land estate.
The combination of delivering high-risk reducing burns within the region, and the delivery of burns in Hume region around Kinglake resulted in a decrease in fuel-driven bushfire risk in 2023-24.
The area of vegetation within TFI, and in the mature and old growth stages, remained steady from 2022-23.
Fuel management delivery
Dry conditions through February and March limited the vegetation types available for treatment during the prolonged burning window in late March. This resulted in predominantly wetter vegetation types, and grasslands, being available. Rain followed this window, then continued consistently throughout April, resulting in the drier forest types remaining too wet for burning for the rest of the season.
During 2023–24, the Port Phillip Region’s fuel management program treated a total of 3,167 hectares. Of the total hectares treated with planned burning (973 hectares), 410 hectares (42%) were risk reduction burns, 530 hectares (55%) were ecological burns and 33 hectares (3%) were windrow/heap burns. Non-burn fuel treatments were delivered across 2,194 hectares.
FFMVic led the delivery of six cross-tenure burns with the CFA in the Port Phillip region (Table 14). Total investment in the Port Phillip fuel management program was $13.4 million in 2023-24 (Table 21).
Table 45 summarises the region’s fuel management delivery in 2023–24.
Table 45: Fuel management delivery, Port Phillip Region, 2023–24.
| Fuel management | Total hectares | Total Number of treatments |
|---|---|---|
Area treated by planned burning Ecological burns Risk reduction burns Windrow / heap burns | 973 ha 530 ha (55%) 410 ha (42%) 33 (3%) | 27 10 14 3 |
Area treated by non-burn fuel treatments Mechanical mulching Mechanical slashing or mowing Other methods | 2,194 ha 1,561 ha 590 ha 43 ha | 128 75 46 7 |
| Total area treated | 3,167 ha | 155 |
Note: Discrepancies in reported total and the total of individual line items are artefacts of rounding using the Rounding Guidelines.
Fuel-driven bushfire risk
Fuel-driven bushfire risk in Port Phillip Region on 30 June 2024 was 87%, exceeding the regions long-term planning target to maintain fuel-driven bushfire risk at or below 85% of maximum levels. However, the region has made significant gains in risk reduction, with the fuel management program delivered in 2023-24 reducing risk by 2 percentage points from 2022-23.
Fuel-driven bushfire risk levels were reduced across both districts in Port Phillip region but remain over target.
The Port Phillip Region is continuing to undertake non-burn fuel treatments (e.g. slashing and mulching) as conditions allow to complement the planned burning program. It is important to note that the impact that these fuel treatments have on risk reduction are not accounted for in the risk evaluation due to current modelling limitations. These works form a significant proportion of the region’s fuel treatment program. This includes broad-hectare mulching in high-risk areas such as Mt Dandenong and the Mornington Peninsula.
Considerable pre-season engagement with partner fire agencies is planned at the district and brigade level to strengthen local relationships and ensure an integrated approach to first attack for the upcoming 2024-25 fire season.
Table 46 indicates the current level of fuel-driven bushfire risk in the region and its districts and how this has changed over the past five years.
Table 46: Fuel-driven bushfire risk, Port Phillip region, 2019-20 to 2023–24.
| Fuel-driven bushfire risk | 2019-20* | 2020-21* | 2021–22* | 2022–23* | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Port Phillip Region (Target 85%) | 85% | 84% | 84% | 89% | 87% |
Metropolitan District (Target 85%) | 91% | 85% | 90% | 95% | 92% |
Yarra District (Target 85%) | 84% | 84% | 83% | 88% | 86% |
*2023-24 risk data and improvements used to update previous years
Figure 7 indicates the Port Phillip region’s risk profile for 1980 to 2024 and projected changes in fuel-driven bushfire risk until 2027. It indicates fuel-driven bushfire risk in the Port Phillip region:
- would increase to 92% by 2027 in the absence of any fuel management activity or bushfires, and
- implementing the entire JFMP would keep risk levels below the Port Phillip region fuel-driven bushfire risk target.
Figure 7: Port Phillip’s fuel-driven bushfire risk from 1980 – 2024. Data aligns with financial year.
Ecosystem resilience
In 2023-24, the area of public land vegetation in Port Phillip Region within its TFI remained stable at 41% (Table 47). Approximately 46% of vegetation on public land in the Region remains below its minimum TFI as ecosystems continue to recover from the devastating impacts of the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires.
Table 47: Tolerable Fire Interval – Port Phillip region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Tolerable Fire Interval | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below minimum TFI | % | 46% | 46% | 47% | |
| Within TFI | % | 40% | 41% | 41% | - |
| Above maximum TFI | % | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| No fire history | % | 12% | 12% | 12% | - |
| Total | % | 100*% | 100%* | 100% |
|
*The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
The proportion of vegetation on public land in the Port Phillip region in the mature and old growth stages remained stable at 49% from 2021–22 to 2023–24 (Table 48). The juvenile growth stage declined slightly from 11% in 2021–22 and 2022–23 to 10% in 2023–24. The adolescent growth stage showed a minor increase, rising from 28% in 2021–22 and 2022–23 to 29% in 2023–24. The mature growth stage remained consistent at 47% throughout all three years, while the old growth stage was stable at 2%. Vegetation with no fire history remained unchanged at 12% across the period. The proportion of vegetation on public land in Port Phillip Region in the mature and old growth stages remained stable at 49%.
Table 48: Growth Stage Structure – Port Phillip region, 2021-22 to 2023-24.
| Growth Stage Structure | Unit | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juvenile growth stage | % | 10% | 11% | 10% | ¯ |
| Adolescent growth stage | % | 28% | 28% | 29% | |
| Mature growth stage | % | 47% | 47% | 47% | - |
| Old growth stage | % | 2% | 2% | 2% | - |
| No fire history | % | 12% | 12% | 12% | - |
| Total | % | 100%* | 100% | 100% |
|
*The line items in this Table to not add up to 100% as an artefact of rounding each line item.
Note: Continual improvement in fire mapping may lead to small discrepancies in previously reported percentage values. All figures reported here, including comparison to the previous year, are calculated using the most accurate mapping available.
Action to address elevated fuel-driven bushfire risk in some regions
In 2023-24, FFMVic made notable progress in reducing fuel-driven bushfire risk in regions and districts that were previously exceeding long-term targets. However, some areas remain above target following three consecutive La Niña years (2020-23), where limited opportunities for widespread planned burning have allowed fuel to accumulate.
With Australia’s shift to El Niño conditions in 2023-24, dry weather delayed the start of the planned burn season in autumn but extended its duration. Early-season bushfires in Gippsland in October were followed by heavy rainfall—some areas received up to 400mm above average—which continued into January. A significant weather shift in February brought an extended dry spell, leading to large bushfires in western Victoria.
While the autumn burn program typically begins in late February, many resources were committed to fire suppression, and conditions across much of the state were too dry for burns to be safely conducted. FFMVic took advantage of suitable conditions and available resources from mid-March, with the largest burning window of the season coinciding with Easter. Conditions remained broadly suitable across many parts of the state through until May, allowing for an unusually long tail to the season. This enabled delivery of the largest planned burn program in three years, reducing fuel-driven bushfire risk in 9 of 16 districts and maintaining stable risk levels in two others. Districts with growing risk are primarily those where risk is at reduced levels following significant impacts of the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires.
Overall, 4 of 6 regions and 11 of 16 districts are now achieving their fuel-driven bushfire risk target following delivery of the 2023-24 fuel management program.
Updated