Current labour market conditions remain positive
Key Indicators – June 2024
| Unemployment rate | Labour force participation rate | Average weekly hours worked | Underemployment rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5% | 67.9% | 31.3 hours | 6.7% |
- The Victorian labour market is strong. The unemployment rate remains low by historical standards and the share of Victorians either working or actively looking for work is high.
- Part-time employment has increased and average hours worked has declined since early 2023. This is resulting in a higher share of people who have jobs but would like to work more hours (measured by the underemployment rate).
- Some workforce shortages show signs of easing, consistent with slowing vacancies, a pickup in applicants per vacancy and firms being able to fill vacant roles with less difficulty.
- Employability skills are growing in importance and are in high demand.
Many new workers are expected to enter the Victorian labour market in the next three years
- Around 392,000 new workers are expected to enter the Victorian workforce over the next three years to 2027, comprising of about 168,000 workers to fill new jobs and 224,000 workers to replace those who exit the workforce.
- Metropolitan Melbourne is expected to account for about four in five new workers over 2024-27 (or 315,000 new workers), with the remaining 77,000 new workers expected to enter the workforce in regional Victoria.
- Health care and social assistance is expected to lead industry workforce growth over the next three years. This industry, along with construction; professional scientific and technical services; and education and training, make up close to 60 per cent of new workers expected.
- Ageing and disability carers, registered nurses and construction managers are among the fastest growing occupations in Victoria.
- For the first time, this report also presents workforce projections for the next 10 years. Around 1,421,000 new workers are expected to gain employment over 2024-34. Most new workers (around 85 per cent) are expected to gain employment in occupations generally requiring post-secondary qualifications.
Victoria’s housing and infrastructure agenda is creating new job opportunities
- Victoria’s infrastructure commitments are a significant driver of workforce demand in construction and other industries in the supply chain over the next decade. Around 162,900 new workers are expected to join the workforce in construction alone over this period.
- Across the industry subdivisions within construction, most new workers are expected to enter construction services (95,600), followed by building construction (52,300) and heavy and civil engineering construction (15,000).
- Construction managers, electricians, carpenters and joiners, and plumbers are expected to be the most in-demand occupations in construction.
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