Victoria’s natural environment is a dynamic system, constantly undergoing and responding to change in the short and longer-term. The driving factors for environmental decline within Victoria continue to be population growth, and the corresponding increase in human activities, and climate change.
These will continue to be the main drivers of change for the foreseeable future and pose the biggest threat to the long-term health of our environment.
During 2020-21 there were two significant events that impacted population growth and the climate in Victoria.
- The coronavirus pandemic led to a reduction – and even reversal – of population growth in some parts of Victoria.
- A La Niña weather pattern, which brings cooler and wetter weather to eastern and southern Australia, temporarily breaking the trend towards increased dryness.
These two events have had a significant impact on our work during the last year, however, they do not change the longer-term trends and impacts we are seeing from population growth and climate change.
Population growth
Population estimates suggest Victoria could have 400,000 fewer residents than originally forecast for the end of 2022.
During the pandemic, Melbourne experienced a 30% decrease in the number of people moving to the city and data shows a net number of 7,500 left Melbourne with 3 in 5 of those moving to the regions.
Australia’s population growth in 2020 was the lowest it has been since 1916, during the first world war, when the population decreased, according to Australian Bureau of Statistic figures. The national population growth was 0.5%, while Victoria had the lowest growth nationally at 0.01%. This is largely driven by net overseas migration, which became negative from March 2020 in alignment with the closure of Australian borders and the declaration of a pandemic by the World Health Organisation on 11 March 2020.
Despite the changes, these numbers are not expected to significantly impact the use of public land around population centres, in the short or long term. A reduction in population growth does not alleviate the existing pressures on our ecosystems from human activity. It is a temporary reduction in the rate of increase.
Reduced travel options during the pandemic, a trend towards outdoor activities for health reasons, constrained budgets and changing preferences for recreational activities will continue to drive high visitation numbers on public land over the coming year.
While numbers and timelines remain uncertain due to the unique circumstances of the coronavirus pandemic, the scale of the public health response, economic impacts, and population growth will continue to be a long-term trend in Victoria - especially once international travel becomes less restricted and the local and global economies recover.
Climate change
The Victorian environment continues to be affected by climate change. In 2020, Australia had its fourth warmest year since records began, despite the seasonal weather being driven by a La Niña phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which usually brings colder and wetter weather.
The more frequently occurring ENSO phase, El Niño, is associated with hotter and drier weather in Australia and Victoria. However, due to climate change, we are now seeing La Niña years that are warmer than historically recorded El Niño years.
The Bureau of Meteorology manages an ENSO watch to forecast whether we are likely to see an El Niño, La Niña or neutral driver of our weather in the coming year. Their data shows that these events typically occur irregularly between 2 to 7 years apart, however, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of these weather patterns, subjecting Victoria to more frequent instances of extreme weather.
This means more frequent El Niño and the associated drought and heatwave conditions. These conditions lead to more frequent and extreme bushfire events. Extreme bushfires can burn our forests more completely and extensively than ordinarily, leaving them even more susceptible to loss of soil, flooding, landslide, and polluted waterways following significant rain events. Increased flooding also threatens our wildlife, which can be susceptible to drowning.
It is currently unknown when drought conditions or the hotter drier El Niño weather pattern will add to climate change pressure with higher temperatures, below-average rainfall and increased bushfire risk in Victoria.
Climate change will continue to drive extreme weather events that damage our environment, wildlife and way of life, including:
- Heatwaves
- Extreme fire weather
- Bushfire smoke
- Damaging storms and more severe thunderstorms
- Heavy rain
Establishing the context for 2021 – 2022
In addition to climate change and population growth, a number of other important factors were identified as influencing our regulatory priorities.
Coronavirus pandemic
The coronavirus pandemic has changed the way in which we live, work and spend our leisure time. Outside of public health restrictions, we saw higher than usual visitation numbers to Victorian public land during 2020-21. This trend is expected to continue during 2021 – 2022 due to travel restrictions with people more likely to continue to holiday closer to home in the outdoors.
Peak weekly visitation to public land for recreation in some locations increased by more than ten times recorded visitation before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. This has been particularly prevalent in public land closer to urban areas. For example, Lake Burrumbeet, near Ballarat, had a peak weekly visitation of over 3,400 to its southern shore in January 2019 while in 2021 that more than doubled to over 7,600.
Off-road vehicle use
Changes in personal tastes and recreation have seen a move away from traditional team-based activities to more individualised activities. This is in part responsible for an increase in the purchase, and subsequent use on public land, of off-road vehicles. These include trail bikes and other all-terrain vehicles.
These increases are likely to continue in 2021 – 2022 as the economy recovers and while people are still holidaying closer to home in the outdoors.
Bushfire recovery
Recovery from the significant 2019-20 bushfires will take many years as forests regrow and burnt land continues to be more vulnerable to extreme weather events.
Native wildlife will continue to be at risk during the slow regeneration of lost forest and are more vulnerable to future bushfires.
Significant scientific uncertainty will remain for some time while knowledge develops on the extent of the impacts of the 2019-20 bushfires and how species are recovering.
Native timber harvesting
Environmental laws relating to timber harvesting allow natural values to be protected while providing sustainable access to timber resources.
A natural value in a forest may be a particular threatened species, a cultural heritage site, a source of clean water or something less specific like biodiversity.
The implications of the 2019-20 fires on forest biodiversity have contributed to the focus of the Conservation Regulator on ensuring forest values are adequately protected.
Plantation timber
Timber plantations comprised of native species, such as blue gums, are also leading to an increase in human-wildlife interaction and the potential for conflict as wildlife move into these environments.
When it comes time to harvest, this can put wildlife, such as koalas, at risk of harm and the management of this risk will be important for the Conservation Regulator in 2021 – 2022 and beyond.
Wildlife
The coronavirus pandemic, despite restricted pathways for the import and export of wildlife due to international travel restrictions, saw a global boom in online wildlife trade. We know that the pandemic has driven an increase in the demand for exotic pets globally with Australian wildlife sometimes fetching high prices.
Demand for keeping wildlife as pets has been increasing in recent years. Applications for new private wildlife licences has grown over 24% in 2019-2020 and another 21% in 2020-2021.
Demand for firewood
Firewood supply continues to be constrained and this is expected to continue in the future. The depletion of firewood stocks during major bushfires and additional home heating costs arising from the coronavirus pandemic is expected to have increased firewood demand.
The illegal take of firewood continues to be an issue damaging wildlife habitats and culturally significant sites.
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