Snapshot of the State of the Victorian Labour Market Report 2024

• The unemployment rate remains low by historical standards.
• The share of people either working or looking for work is at a record high.
• The job vacancy rate has eased since mid-2022.
• Employability skills such as communication and leadership skills are in high demand and are growing in importance.

• The Victorian unemployment rate has increased but remains low by historical standards.
• The unemployment rate in metropolitan Melbourne has increased to 4.5 per cent in June 2024. The unemployment rate for regional Victoria remains historically low at 4 per cent, driven by relatively stronger regional jobs growth over recent years compared with metropolitan Melbourne.
  

• The share of Victorians either working or looking for work (the labour participation rate) is at a record high of 67.9 per cent, and is well above the 2010-19 average.
• The strong labour market, with 3.7 million Victorians in employment, reflects more people participating in the workforce.
• The participation rate for people aged 15-24 remains higher than the Victorian average at 68.5 per cent, as more job opportunities may have encouraged people to work instead of studying full time.
  

• While a record 2.6 million Victorians are working full time in June 2024, almost all employment growth since early 2023 has been in part-time jobs.
• The rise in part-time employment indicates a fall in the number of hours worked per person due to easing labour demand.

• Since early 2023, falling average hours worked across the economy has resulted in an increase in the share of people who have jobs but would like to work more hours (the underemployment rate).
• The underemployment rate still remains low by historical standards.
• While the female underemployment rate (at 8.3 per cent) is also low by historical standards, it is higher than the male underemployment rate (5.3 per cent).

• Job vacancies as a share of the Victorian labour force (the job vacancy rate) has eased in May 2024 to 2.2 per cent but remains relatively high. This reflects slowing but still strong demand for workers.
• With 172,000 Victorians unemployed and 87,000 job vacancies in May 2024, there are now two unemployed Victorians for each vacancy. This is higher than in early 2022 where it was close to one unemployed Victorian for each job vacancy.

• The average number of applicants per job vacancy has increased from 13 in September 2022 to 23 in March 2024.
• However, of the 23 applicants, there were only around 8 qualified applicants and under 3 suitable applicants per vacancy on average, showing that there continues to be challenges finding workers with the right skills.

• Job advertisements are an indicator of the demand for workers and can also show the skills employers are seeking.
• Employability skills such as communication; initiative and leadership; and personal attributes (which includes attitudes and behaviours such as attention to detail, organisational skills, and multi-tasking) are the most in demand skills and have grown in importance since 2018.
• As at January 2024, 51 per cent of online job advertisements requested communication skills, 46 per cent initiative and leadership skills, and 37 per cent personal attributes.
• Other commonly requested skills include business skills such as business management, project management, customer service and general sales practices.
  

• Around 392,000 new workers are expected to enter the Victorian workforce by 2027, and 1,421,000 new workers by 2034.
• Health care and social assistance and construction are expected to lead workforce growth over the next 10 years.
• Occupations expected to see high demand include ageing and disability carers, registered nurses, construction managers, primary school teachers, and carpenters and joiners.
• Almost all of the expected demand for workers will be in jobs that require post-secondary qualifications.

The number of new workers expected is calculated as the sum of the number of workers projected to:

• fill newly created jobs in the economy
• replace people who retire from the workforce.

• Growth in health care and social assistance is supported by substantial investment by the Commonwealth and Victorian Governments in the public health system, including a record $13 billion committed in the 2024/25 Victorian Budget to fund hospitals and health services.
• Construction is supported by Victoria’s infrastructure and housing agenda, such as the Housing Statement and the Big Build.

• Around 180,000 new workers over the next three years are expected in occupations usually requiring a VET qualification.
• This is followed by around 163,000 new workers expected in occupations generally requiring a higher education qualification.

The fastest growing industries in Victoria over 2024-27 (health care and social assistance and construction) usually require VET qualifications for occupations in demand including ageing and disability carers (12,500), and carpenters and joiners (6,100).

• Around 13,200 ageing and disability carers and 11,300 registered nurses are expected to enter the workforce over the next three years.
• Construction-related occupations are also among the most in-demand occupations, with around 8,700 construction managers and 6,100 carpenters and joiners expected to join the workforce over the same period.

• The most in-demand occupations in construction include construction managers, carpenters and joiners, electricians, and plumbers.
• These occupations are essential to deliver Victoria’s Housing Statement and major infrastructure projects.
• Most occupations in demand are aligned with VET, with an apprenticeship as a training pathway.

• The inner metropolitan (93,400 new workers or 29.6 per cent) and western metropolitan (58,100 new workers or 18.4 per cent) areas will account for the highest proportion of new workers expected over 2024-27 across metropolitan Melbourne.
• About 45.2 per cent of new workers expected in metropolitan Melbourne will be in occupations usually requiring VET.

• Care economy occupations feature prominently in the occupations most in demand across metropolitan Melbourne.
• Around 9,000 ageing and disability carers and 8,300 registered nurses are expected to enter the workforce over the next three years.
• Other occupations in demand are in the construction and professional, scientific and technical services industries.